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Prospects for the spread of ISIS after the defeat of the Caliphate
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Prospects for the spread of ISIS after the defeat of the Caliphate
Annotation
PII
S032150750010099-0-1
DOI
10.31857/S032150750010099-0
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
Natalia A. Zherlitsyna 
ORCID: 0000-0001-8647-9419
Occupation: Senior Research Fellow, Institute for African Studies
Affiliation:
Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
Associated Professor, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)
Address: Russian Federation,
Edition
Issue 7
Pages
13-18
Abstract

The article analyzes the situation that developed after the defeat of the Caliphate of ISIS. Although the physical implementation of the ISIS state-building project has been suppressed, the threat of the radical group’s re-establishment remains very high.

The author concludes that the main reason why the international jihadist movement remains viable is the external situation - the continuing inability of weak States to restore order and the meagre potential of security forces in a number of countries and regions. Radical leaders disperse militants and resources into new areas where they can re-establish themselves and expand. An ideal territory for expansion is a weak state that suffers from constant civil conflicts and interfaith tensions, and also has a population susceptible to jihadist propaganda.

The main result of the collapse of the caliphate in the Middle East was the activation, expansion and transformation of local extremist movements throughout the region of South and Southeast Asia. In South Asia, Myanmar is an example of such a weak state affected by terrorist groups. The potential area for the growth of ISIS after the defeat of the caliphate is the disputed territory of Kashmir. The Philippines and Indonesia in many ways can be an attractive place to relocate ISIS fighters and build a base there. Afghanistan is a country torn by violence for decades, and, accordingly, it already has a developed infrastructure for jihad. On the Sinai  Peninsula  and  in  Libya,  jihadists  use  similar  methods:  guerrilla  tactics,  terrorist  attacks,  including  raids,  ambushes  and bombings. The author concludes that the ability of ISIS to adapt makes the threat of its further expansion very high.

 

Keywords
extremism, security threats, ISIS, international jihadist movement, ISIS caliphate, weak states, transformation of the ISIS strategy
Date of publication
27.08.2020
Number of purchasers
27
Views
3005
Readers community rating
0.0 (0 votes)
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